Bhavesh Patel, senior consultant, chemical strategy consulting, IHS Chemical Consulting/IHS Automotive Consulting, gave delegates to the UTECH North America Automotive and Sustainability conference told delegates the signs are now positive for the auto industry.
Bhavesh, Patel sees a number of key trends that will affect the shape of the global automotive industry up to about 2030.
Overall the automotive industry is looking positive, with overall growth of 2.28% across all markets to 2022. Some regions such as Europe will be flat, while China is expected to grow and the US will become more globally integrated into automotive production.
The oil price continues to have a big impact on economies over that period of time, importers will continue to benefit from the lower prices for a while, but over time, IHS predicts that the price will return to the $100/bbl level with time.
This will be one factor to affect demand in a number of countries, some of which are taking advantage of a lower oil price to increase the wealth of its people. India’s government, for example “is pushing to growing the middle class and providing jobs for them. India is a net importer of oil and this means good times for them,” Patel said.
When the price of oil is low, consumer disposable income rises.
“In the US, a 10 cent drop in the price of…